Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 21,  2013, Pages 190-203.

Baha M. Al-Alawi, Thomas H. Bradley.

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1374, United States.

Abstract

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs) are emerging automotive products that have the capability to increase vehicle fuel economy, but at an incremental purchase cost relative to conventional vehicles. In general, their reduced petroleum consumption and improved efficiency provides life cycle economic benefits to consumers, society, automakers, and policymakers. These stakeholders have sought to understand the role of HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs in the future vehicle fleets by estimating the diffusion rate of these technologies into the automotive marketplace. This review presents a comprehensive summary of the literature of HEV, PHEV and EV penetration rate studies, their methods, and their recommendations. These studies have applied a suite of analytical and computational tools to model the consumer acceptability of these technologies under a wide variety of policy and macroeconomic scenarios. The results of these studies are compared and synthesized to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the field and to propose further means for improvement of advanced technology vehicle market modeling exercises. On the basis of this review, the authors recommend that modeling of HEV, PHEV and EV penetration rates should include improved interfaces with consumer surveys, modeling of automakers’ actions, federal and state policy and its effect on automotive markets, competition among technologies, market volume, vehicle classifications, and model parameters sensitivity analysis.

 

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About the author

Dr. Baha M. Al-Alawi has been studying the effects of Advanced Vehicles Technologies on the U.S. policy, economy and environment. His primary research interests include Decision support tools for policy development to support market penetration of plug-in vehicles. Some of his research work on Transportation Electrification are: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Policy Analyses “Analysis of Corporate Average Fuel Economy Regulation Compliance Scenarios Inclusive of Plug in Hybrid Vehicles”, Total Cost of Ownership Analyses “Total cost of ownership, payback, and consumer preference modeling of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles”, Market Diffusion, and in modeling the long term impact of PHEV diffusion on the US energy consumption and environmental impacts “Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers.”

 

Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies

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